LI
Lazard, Inc. (LAZ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record adjusted net revenue of $725M (+12% YoY) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56 (+47% YoY); GAAP net revenue was $748M (-5% YoY) and diluted EPS $0.65, with results driven by both Financial Advisory and Asset Management .
- Financial Advisory adjusted net revenue rose to $422M (+14% YoY), Asset Management adjusted net revenue reached $294M (+8% YoY); AUM ended at $265B (+17% YTD), with Q3 net inflows of $4.6B and improved fee mix .
- Costs tracked well: adjusted compensation ratio 65.5% (vs. 66.0% LY) and adjusted non-comp ratio 20.5% (vs. 21.4% LY); CFO guided full-year 2025 effective tax rate to ~20% .
- Capital return remained consistent: $60M returned in Q3, including a $0.50 dividend declared for Q4 payable Nov 14, 2025; repurchase authorization stood at ~$159M at quarter-end .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based revenue strength: Adjusted net revenue up 12% YoY to a quarterly record; FA +14% YoY to $422M; AM +8% YoY to $294M . CEO: “We see an increasingly constructive environment for both of our businesses, with substantial client engagement firmwide.”
- Asset Management inflection with record inflows: Q3 net inflows $4.6B; AUM $265B (+17% YTD); CFO detailed large institutional mandates and noted fee rate uptick tied to higher-fee strategies .
- Operating discipline: Adjusted comp ratio improved to 65.5% (vs 66.0% LY); adjusted non-comp ratio down to 20.5% (vs 21.4% LY); adjusted operating margin rose to 14.0% . CFO: “We are maintaining a disciplined approach to our expenses while investing to support long-term growth.”
What Went Wrong
- GAAP headline declines YoY: GAAP net revenue fell to $748M (-5% YoY); GAAP diluted EPS dropped to $0.65 (-36% YoY), reflecting higher operating expenses and mix effects .
- Comp still above LT target: Adjusted comp ratio stayed at 65.5%, above the ≤60% goal; non-comp adjusted expense dollars rose 8% YoY for the nine months, keeping the ratio above the 16–20% target .
- Sequential softness vs Q2: Adjusted net revenue down 6% QoQ; adjusted operating income down 6% QoQ as non-compense remained elevated on technology and asset servicing fees .
Financial Results
Segment adjusted net revenue:
KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Peter Orszag): “Lazard’s long-term growth strategy continues to build momentum… We see an increasingly constructive environment for both of our businesses, with substantial client engagement firmwide.”
- CEO on Asset Management: “It is now clear that 2025 is an inflection point for the business… record gross inflows for the third quarter and for the first nine months… total AUM up 17%.”
- CEO on strategy and AI: “We are… becoming the leading AI-enabled independent financial services firm,” highlighting Board addition of Perplexity’s CBO and Senior Advisor General Kurilla for geopolitical advisory depth .
- CFO (Mary Ann Betsch): “Record third-quarter firm-wide revenue of $725 million, up 12%… Financial Advisory revenue $422 million, up 14%… Management fees increased 6% YoY, incentive fees $9 million.”
- CFO guidance: “We currently expect our full-year 2025 effective tax rate to be around 20%.”
Q&A Highlights
- Hiring, productivity, and comp leverage: Management expects comp leverage from rising revenue per MD and maturation of hires; targeting productivity per MD of ~$12.5M by 2030 .
- Asset Management flows quality and fees: Gross outflows lower YoY and concentrated in sub-advised; inflows in quant, EM equities, customized solutions; fee rate roughly flat near term after a small increase .
- Restructuring outlook: Recent bankruptcies not seen as broader private credit stress; dispersion in corporate performance allows concurrent strength in M&A and restructuring; rates path more impactful to restructuring than M&A .
- Regional mix: Q3 tilt toward Europe; strong corporate activity despite macro/political noise (e.g., France), with many global firms less exposed domestically .
- Non-comp expense trajectory and AI spend: High single-digit increase in dollars YoY maintained; AI investments modest with high returns, not a material driver of non-comp .
Estimates Context
Results versus Wall Street consensus:
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Q3: EPS $0.56 vs $0.44 consensus — bold beat; Revenue $746M vs $718M consensus — bold beat.*
- Q2: EPS $0.52 vs $0.40 — beat; Revenue $806M vs $707M — beat.*
- Q1: EPS $0.56 vs $0.36 — beat; Revenue aligned (~$653M vs $654M).*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Broad-based beat and quality of revenue: Both FA and AM contributed; narrative support from strong client engagement and robust pipelines in M&A, restructuring, and secondaries .
- Asset Management turning the corner: Record inflows and higher-fee strategy mix underpin nearer-term operating leverage; watch sustainability of flows and fee rate stability .
- Expense trajectory constructive: Ratios trending better YoY, with LT targets reiterated; maintain focus on comp ratio glidepath and non-comp containment even as growth investments continue .
- Tax rate tailwind: FY25 ETR guided to ~20% supports EPS quality; monitor for discrete items vs normalized run-rate .
- Strategic catalysts: Continued MD hiring, AI enablement, geopolitical advisory depth, and ETF expansion could support medium-term revenue and returns goals (doubling revenue by 2030, 10–15% annual shareholder returns) .
- Near-term trading lens: Stock likely to respond to consensus beats and AM inflows momentum; risks include macro/regulatory timing (shutdowns), FX on AUM/fees, and comp ratio pace toward 60% .
- 2026 pivot watch: Management anticipates operating leverage as hired MDs mature and PE M&A accelerates; secondaries remain structurally strong .